Mobile and broadband subscriptions in Vietnam are predicted to see steady growth from 2023 to 2030 delivering revenue increases for operators, on the back of wider economic growth in the country.
This is according to analyst company Research and Markets, which stated mobile subscriptions will rise 1.1% and fixed broadband by 3.4% over the next seven years.
Revenues from mobile will thus increase as operators transition from 2G and 3G to 4G mobile data services. The Vietnamese mobile market saw a slowdown in 2018 and 219 due to pressure on legacy 2G voice and SMS revenue.
Capex from service providers is expected to remain “stable” until 2030 as spending on 5G has yet to be deployed as providers are focused on rollingl out fibre broadband. Major providers such as Viettel, Vinaphone and Mobifone are “aligning their investments with revenue growth, maintaining a consistent Capex to Sales Ratio.”
The mobile market saw a shift in 2020 when 3G and 4G subscribers surpassed 2G subscriptions for the first time. Operators then began shifting from prepaid voice and SMS services to data centric ones.
Research and Markets predicted 5G will make up over half (66%) of subscriptions by 2030 equating to around 90 million subscribers. Meanwhile, 4G will account for 34% in this period and the shutdown of 2G is scheduled for 2025, followed by the switching off of 3G by 2026.
Viettel, Vinaphone and Mobifone have around 90% of market share, and mergers between smaller players such as Gmobile, Hanoi Telecom, Saigon Post Tel, and SCTV could be announced in future. Government reduction in stakes in VNPT and Mobifone by up to 50% could also occur to bring in private investments and enhance market transparency.
