Global smartphone shipments are predicted to grow by 4% year-on-year in 2024 to 1.21 billion units due to rebounding consumer demand.
Analyst company IDC detailed in its report growth momentum from 2024 is expected to carry on into 2025 with 2.3% growth, as sales will continue to rebound from years of “dismal growth”. The rest of 2025 will see low single-digit growth resulting in a five-year compound annual growth rate of 2.3%.
IDC research director Nabila Popal noted the majority of the expected “strong growth” will stem from Android sales, growing at a rate of 4.8% compared to 0.7% for iPhone.
"The rapid growth of Android is coming off a tough two years, while iOS's softer growth is due to a strong 2023 and increasing competition in China that is denting its growth potential,” explained Popal.
The research director added Apple could accelerate growth if its AI strategy pays off with “clear use cases” for consumers to rebound growth, particularly in China.
“Regardless of how this plays out, the good news is the smartphone market is finally out of the woods with a clear path of recovery ahead," said Popal.
IDC research director Anthony Scarsella noted 5G smartphones accounted for 16% of growth this year as adoption increases across all markets.
The 16% growth in 2024 will be followed by another year of double-digit growth in 2025 (+13.2%) as 5G market share will climb to 74.4%, up from 67.2% in 2024.
“With 5G saturation in most developed markets, the growth of 5G in emerging markets will play a central role in driving shipments throughout the forecast period.
“While the overall smartphone market will have a 2.3% CAGR from 2024-2028, 5G shipments will deliver an impressive 9.1% growth rate for the same time period," said Scarsella.
