5G market share will overtake 3G and 2G next year in Latin America, according to a joint study from industry association 5G Americas and research firm GlobalData. In addition, total data traffic on both fixed and mobile networks in Latin America is expected to more than double in four years.
The report suggests that this traffic will hit about 140 million terabytes by 2028, well over double the 57.8 million terabytes level it hit in 2023. This level of traffic will no doubt put significant pressure on networks and data storage, exchange and processing in the region.
One thing that won’t change for a while in Latin America is 4G’s dominance. Indeed, by 2028 it is expected to continue being the main mobile technology in service with a 66% market share, though this will be a fall from 78% at the end of 2024.
By 2028 5G is predicted to be in second place with 27% of the market, up from an estimated 8% at the end of 2024 and, as we mentioned earlier, ahead of 2G and 3G by next year.
It’s hardly a surprise then that, according to 5G Americas/GlobalData's forecasts, monthly mobile data consumption per user in Latin America will increase from 6.2GB in 2023 to 13GB in 2028, or indeed that mobile subscriptions will go on growing.
Estimates are that Latin America and the Caribbean will end 2028 with 951.5 million mobile subscribers for a penetration rate of 137%. This is obviously well above the actual population of the region, but the figure includes connected devices as well as machine-to-machine (M2M) and/or internet of things (IoT) accesses.
In 2023, total mobile subscriptions were 832.6 million, with a penetration of 125%, according to 5G Americas.
While the inevitable conclusion is that more investments will be required to cope with demand, the BNamericas news website notes that these figures could cause service providers to renew their demands that large content and traffic generators further contribute to investments in telecom networks – the so-called fair share plea.
In fact, we noted earlier this year a strong statement from GSMA Latin America, a regional division of industry association the GSMA, calling for new schemes involving all stakeholders to ensure that significant investments can be made.
